Grand Challenges: Towards an Early Warning System for Increased Probability of Community Infection by SARS-Cov-2 Variants

Summary:

This research will develop an early-warning (weeks to months) and long-term planning (climate change projections) system for the probability of infection by SARS-CoV-2, examining the relationship between climate and COVID-19 mortality. The project will augment previously collected data with artificial intelligence approaches to include additional relevant atmospheric fields (wind, and solar radiation). The project will produce maps showing future sensitivity to COVID as derived from long-term climate projections. In collaboration with the private sector, the project will transmit weekly and seasonal data, replacing the empirically derived relation between COVID-19 mortality and climate with physical principles-based modeling of the spread of droplets carrying SARS-CoV-2.

PI: Augustin Vintzileos (CMNS),
Assistant Research Scientist, ESSIC